Thus, frost damage to trees remains likely under global warming.Ĭlimate is a major force of adaptation and evolution determining fitness of individuals (survival and reproduction) and species range limits 1, 2, 3. When considering these two sources of uncertainty in an eco-physiological model simulating the timings of budbreak for trees of northern environment, results show that 20% of climate simulations expect that trees will be exposed to frost even in 2090. The variation in the date of the last spring frost was larger by 21 days (from 46 to 25 days) for the 50 climate simulations compared to the 5 different pairs of climate models. when air temperature is < 0 ☌, and their potential damage to trees. We use 50 climate simulations produced by a single-initial large climate ensemble and five climate simulations produced by different pairs of global and regional climate models based on the concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) over a latitudinal transect covering the temperate and boreal ecosystems of western Quebec, Canada, during 1955–2099 to provide a first-order estimate of the relative importance of these two sources of uncertainty on the occurrence of frost, i.e.

When projecting the occurrence of frost, the internal variability and the different underlying physical formulations are two major sources of uncertainty of climate models. However, our understanding of the impacts that frost will have on growth and survival of plants is still limited. Climate change affects timings, frequency, and intensity of frost events in northern ecosystems.

Consequent boundary